From the Magazine: Turbulence abroad, opportunity at the counter

How do jobbers win in this environment? By seeking opportunity, but only when it’s done with intent

Uncertainty has a way of reshaping every corner of the economy, and the conflict in the Middle East is no exception. For Canadian automotive jobbers, the ripple effects are already visible — in the cost of lubricants and parts arriving at the receiving dock, in the hesitation of shop customers placing their weekly stock orders and in the macro indicators that shape consumer and business confidence long before a vehicle ever reaches a service bay.

The early signals are not encouraging. National Bank’s weekly economic watch has flagged softening consumer confidence, and the CFIB Business Barometer continues to hover around 58.5 — a level that tells us small business owners are cautious rather than optimistic. The upcoming Bank of Canada’s Q1 2026 Business Outlook Survey isn’t expected to paint a rosier picture. Housing reinforces the tone: New listings edged downward in March for the seventh consecutive month, and sales remain subdued.

Overshadowing all of this is inflation. The March CPI print is tracking around 2.5 per cent, but April is expected to push above 3 per cent, driven by sharp fuel price increases tied to the Middle East supply shock and the corresponding moves in global oil and Brent indexes. Fuel is only the opening act. With damage to petrochemical plants in the region, cost pressure is feeding back into the value chain in ways the aftermarket has seen before — and hasn’t entirely forgotten.

The pass-through is already underway. Air Canada has begun trimming connection flights as jet fuel economics tighten. Grocery suppliers are instating fuel surcharges that will land on consumer receipts. Closer to home, manufacturers and warehouse distributors have started passing through increases on lubricants, consumables and auto parts, with jobbers squarely in the middle of that pass-through. Absorb too much, and margin erodes; pass along too aggressively and shop customers push back or shop elsewhere. Finding the right cadence on price changes and equipping the counter and outside sales team to communicate them clearly, is the difference between protecting gross margin and watching it bleed out quietly.

When wallets tighten, consumers defer preventative maintenance and wait for breakdowns. For shops, that compresses average repair orders. For jobbers, it reshapes the SKU mix.

The employment picture complicates the policy response. Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.7 per cent in March on a modest gain of 14,000 jobs, but the participation rate tells a quieter story. From December to March, it fell from 65.4 to 64.9, meaning fewer Canadians are actively looking for work. That dynamic can flatter the headline number while masking softness underneath. Meanwhile, short-term bond yields have crept upward. The three-year Government of Canada yield is up 10.37 per cent over the past three months, signalling that markets are pricing in stickier inflation.

That bond move matters for one critical reason: It narrows the Bank of Canada’s room to maneuver. Normally, a central bank confronting a soft labour market and slowing consumer confidence would lean on rate cuts to stimulate activity. With headline inflation trending back above target, that lever is effectively off the table. The Bank is being asked to manage two problems with one hand tied behind its back.

Here is the counterintuitive part, and it’s where jobbers should lean in. Historically, economic uncertainty has been a tailwind for the aftermarket. When new vehicle affordability tightens, as it has with January and February new vehicle sales down versus 2025, consumers hold onto their existing vehicles longer and choose to fix over replace. The average age of vehicles in service in Canada has now stretched past 12 years, and that trend is expected to continue. More vehicles on the road, older vehicles in service, more parts moving through the distribution channel.

The near-term concern is the composition of that demand. When wallets tighten, consumers defer preventative maintenance and wait for breakdowns. For shops, that compresses average repair orders. For jobbers, it reshapes the SKU mix: Slower turns on margin-rich maintenance categories and heavier demand on repair-driven lines (brakes, suspension, steering, chassis, undercar). That shift has real implications for purchasing cadence, safety stock levels, and working capital. Fleet operators are navigating the same math at scale, absorbing fuel increases and SG&A pressure across their P&L — and the shops that serve them are looking upstream for partners who can help.

Across the value chain, strategic sourcing will separate winners from laggards. Longer lead times, more complex routing, and continued noise from trade tariffs demand more deliberate inventory strategies than the just-in-time playbooks many jobbers relied on pre-2020. Depth in the right SKUs — and a willingness to carry slightly more safety stock in volatile categories — is worth more right now than a lean-but-stranded warehouse. If there is a competitive silver lining here, it’s this: The aftermarket’s agility has historically outpaced OEMs when supply chains get messy, and jobbers sit at exactly the link in the chain where that agility shows up — provided we apply the lessons we should have already internalized.

Depth in the right SKUs — and a willingness to carry slightly more safety stock in volatile categories — is worth more right now than a lean-but-stranded warehouse.

Moving forward

In environments like this, there are really only two postures: Seek opportunity, or retreat from risk. My bias is toward the former, but only if operators act with intent. A few concrete plays are worth flagging:

• Equip your shops to have the deferral conversation. When consumers postpone preventative maintenance, shops lose the margin-rich work and jobbers feel it in slower filter, fluid, and belt turns. The jobbers who win here give their shop customers the tools to fight back: Talking points on why parts costs are moving, counter-ready POS materials that frame value over price, training resources that help service advisors reframe the conversation. A shop that retains a preventive maintenance customer is a shop that keeps ordering. Help them make that case.
• Broaden the category mix where it fits. Tire programs, TPMS, ADAS calibration tools and targets, hybrid and EV components, diagnostic equipment and specialty undercar are categories where independent jobbers can deepen share of wallet with existing shop accounts rather than fight trench warfare for new ones. A shop earned on brake pads is a shop you can keep on calibration targets, and every added category is another reason for them to call you first rather than a competitor.
• Court the national and key accounts. Fleet operators and multi-location shop groups are absorbing cost increases more acutely than smaller independents, and many are consolidating supplier relationships for cost predictability and rebate leverage. Structured programs — dedicated account management, EDI integration, custom SKU assortments, committed delivery windows — can lock in volume during exactly the period when the independent book turns choppy.
• Invest in field presence and marketing when competitors pull back. Outside sales call frequency, counter days, tech training clinics, trade show presence and local advertising all get cheaper when competitors retreat. The jobbers who stay visible — in person, on the phone and digitally — are the ones shops default to when something breaks and they need the part on the next hotshot.
• Protect your bench. Labour participation is slipping, and experienced counter people, outside sales reps, and delivery drivers remain hard to find and harder to replace. Counter knowledge is one of the few real moats a jobber has against national chains and online competitors; losing a veteran counter pro isn’t a backfill, it’s a capability loss. Retention programs, cross-training into ADAS and EV categories, and clear career pathways cost less than recruiting in a tight market — and position the business for the vehicle parc we’ll actually be supporting five years out.
• Tighten operational discipline. With shop AROs compressing, every order has to work harder on your side too. Delivery route efficiency, e-catalog adoption, first-call fill rates, inventory turns, and disciplined credit management are the low-capex levers that protect margin when volume gets uneven. A lost sale from a missed stocking decision costs more than the carrying cost of getting depth right — and in a volatile cost environment, the jobber who has it on the shelf wins the order.

Downturns are when market share moves. The jobbers who deepen shop relationships, broaden category coverage, and stay visible while competitors pull back are the ones who come out the other side with a larger book of business. Shops may be navigating tighter customer wallets, but they still need parts on their shelves and on their lifts — and they remember which supplier showed up when things got hard.

Zakari Krieger is the Fix Network, Canadian vice president of Prime CarCare, responsible for the Canadian retail business, encompassing the Speedy Auto Service and Novus Auto Glass business lines

This article originally appeared in the May 2026 issue of Jobber News.