How consumer behaviour is being reshaped in the aftermarket

Rising costs tied to owning and operating a vehicle are reshaping consumer behaviour across the automotive aftermarket.

Mark Strand of Cox Automotive told attendees at the recent MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers Vision Conference that while vehicle prices have stabilized, the total cost of ownership continues to climb, putting pressure on consumers.

“The big picture story is … some signs of slowdown,” Strand said, pointing to inflation, energy costs and economic uncertainty as key factors.

Energy prices in particular are influencing both household budgets and broader economic conditions. Strand warned that a sustained rise in oil prices could have widespread effects on consumer spending.

“If we have $150, $200 barrel oil, that’s not going to be good for the consumer,” he said during the 3 Dragons: Aftermarket Outlook panel discussion.

Higher fuel costs alone are already removing billions of dollars from consumers’ discretionary budgets, observed fellow panellist Nathan Shipley, executive director and  industry analyst for automotive at Circana.

“A $1 per gallon increase … equates to a $12.1 billion spending increase for consumers every single month,” he said.

That pressure is leading many households to make trade‑offs, including reducing driving or delaying maintenance work.

“That means deferred maintenance,” Shipley said, noting consumers may “push tires, brakes, wipers… just basics” to the back burner.

Those behavioural shifts are already visible in long‑term trends, Strand noted. While overall vehicle miles travelled have recovered, usage per household has not fully returned to pre‑pandemic levels.

“We haven’t gotten back to pre-pandemic trend,” he said, citing hybrid work as one factor reducing daily driving.

At the same time, higher ownership costs are encouraging drivers to hold on to vehicles longer. Increases in repair, maintenance and insurance costs have outpaced the price of vehicles themselves.

“The big cost increases … are vehicle maintenance and repair and insurance,” Strand said.

That dynamic is contributing to an ageing vehicle fleet and creating opportunities for the aftermarket, even as some consumers delay service.

“About 40% of vehicles out there are overdue for some major service,” Strand pointed out.

The current environment reflects a broader divide in the economy, with higher‑income households continuing to spend while others feel the strain.

“The consumer tells you they feel bad,” Strand said, noting confidence levels remain low despite continued spending in some segments.

He warned that further economic pressure, particularly from energy markets, could deepen those divides and further alter consumer behaviour.

“When the cost of operating the vehicle goes up people pull back,” Strand said.

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