TD Cowen survey points to stronger U.S. auto demand through 2028

TD Cowen says its latest Vehicle Density Survey suggests U.S. auto demand will remain stronger than expected through 2028 despite economic uncertainty.

The investment firm said respondents expect the number of vehicles per household to increase by seven per cent over the next two years, up from the three per cent gain projected in its 2025 survey. TD Cowen said the findings support forecasts for U.S. seasonally adjusted annual vehicle sales that are three to six per cent above market consensus between 2026 and 2028.

The report said stronger demand, combined with new vehicle production capacity coming online, could lead to higher North American vehicle production in 2027 and 2028. It said auto suppliers with significant exposure to North America would be among the biggest beneficiaries.

TD Cowen said tight vehicle supply and affordability challenges are expected to support pricing in the near term before additional production capacity shifts the market toward higher sales volumes next year.

The firm cautioned that its outlook remains subject to risks, including broader economic conditions, oil prices, the future of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, vehicle affordability, competitive pressures and the pace at which new production capacity comes online. It also said consumer credit trends will remain an important factor to watch.