Here’s what’s going to make parts proliferation worse

If you thought parts proliferation was bad now, it’s about to get a lot worse, an industry expert warned.

As average vehicle age climbs and a wider range of vehicles are on the roads, jobbers are already seeing issues with keeping track of all the parts these vehicles need — and stocking them.

But as electric vehicles now begin to proliferate at a quicker pace — Canada finished with a new high in ZEV adoption at the end of 2023 and Stats Canada reported a further surge to start 2024 — there will be even more parts coming through to service those vehicles.

It will take time to make a large-scale impact, but it will happen, according to Todd Campau, aftermarket practice leader at S&P Global Mobility.

“We’re seeing the same thing with EVs that we’ve seen with all other vehicles: Consumers prefer to buy EVs that are of the light truck body style,” he said at AAPEX 2023 during his presentation, Trends Impacting the North American Aftermarket.

And as carmakers add more SUVs, crossovers and pickups, the belief is that more consumers will start buying EVs. Eventually, the market will move closer to what we see with internal combustion engines — in Canada, DesRosiers reported, 85 per cent of vehicles sold are light trucks.

Yes, EVs make up a small percentage of vehicles on roads today so there’s a long way to go for them to make a meaningful impact, Campau acknowledged.

“As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day — [the U.S.] vehicle fleet of 285-plus million vehicles wasn’t built in a day and we won’t change it over in a day,” he said.

But changes are on the way. For example, Tesla is the current market leader by far but their hold won’t be as strong in the coming years. Consumer options are going to go from a handful of brands building EVs to upwards of 60.

“And so we’re going from a few brands to a lot of brands,” Campau said, adding that the market will jump from 26 models today to hundreds of models over the next few years.

That’s 300 more vehicles “that you now have to understand the products to maintain the repair. You have to add parts to your line for 300 additional vehicles, all the while continuing to maintain what you do for the ICE vehicles that are on the road today,” he said.

Yes, EVs have fewer parts. “I think in the short term, the proliferation of parts could get worse for a while because you’re going to have to have parts for EVs that are starting to grow — and there’s a lot of brands and a lot of nameplates, a lot of models — and you’re going to have to continue to maintain the already proliferation of parts for the vehicles that are in the fleet today,” Campau said.

Eventually, he predicted, companies will merge and the pressure will lessen.

“But some of the some of the new entrants may not last forever. So that picture will clarify. But in the meantime, there’s going to be some degree of chaos around that,” Campau said.