From the Magazine: The technician shortage may be worse than you think

You have probably seen the viral TikTok clip where Elon Musk is asked about the biggest challenge facing humanity. His answer? “Population collapse.”

Now, the Tesla CEO is a known provocateur, and his sensationalist views have since been debunked by demographers. But there is a kernel of truth to his response.

According to Canadian scientist Vaclav Smil (who also happens to be one of Bill Gates’ favourite authors), birth rates in major western economies are teetering on the brink, either just below or above what he calls replacement levels — that is, the rate at which a country’s population has enough babies to sustain its own organic growth. In his book Numbers Don’t Lie, he defines the replacement birth rate at 1.7%. Guess where Canada stands? 1.4 per cent, as per Statistics Canada data from 2020.

Low birth rates, population collapse and demographic shifts may seem heavy-handed for a discussion on technician shortage. After all, hasn’t the industry been talking about the impending “mechanicalypse” since the turn of the millennium?  The projected collapse surely hasn’t come to pass. But increasingly data seems to suggest that we may be closer to a crisis than we think.

A recent report from the Motor Vehicle Retailers of Ontario (MVRO) and the Canadian Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) shows that we are in uncharted waters now. According to the study, there were over 3,000 open jobs in automotive in Ontario in the first quarter of 2023 — double the number of what was seen before COVID.

Even more dire are the sustained trends. Between 2016 and 2021, the 55-plus group of technicians increased by about 13 percent, while 15-24- and 25-54-year cohorts dropped by 2 and 8 per cent, respectively. As the nation ages, these numbers will only accelerate.

One could argue that every industry faces a labour shortage post-COVID, and time may sort out the challenge. That may be true of industries such as software, but skilled trades — especially automotive — have a much wider, and deeper, problem.

Data from the U.S. further reinforces the crisis. The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) reported earlier this year that there are only 39,000 new technicians coming out of colleges every year compared to the approximately the 79,000 new jobs that are posted annually.

The problem is worse for diesel trucks. A recent Fleet Owner article shows there are 80,000 open jobs for every 10,000 diesel technicians added every year in the U.S. These shortages in the freight sector have ever bigger implications for our economy — impacting everything from flow of goods to inflation and everything in between.

One could argue that every industry faces a labour shortage post-COVID, and time may sort out the challenge. That may be true of industries such as software, but skilled trades — especially automotive — have a much wider, and deeper, problem. Part of the problem stems from systemic demographic shift and sustained decline in birth rates — countries such as Canada are just not being able to replenish its labour force. COVID may have fast-tracked the gap between retirees and new entrants, but that was coming one way or another.

But the bigger issue lies in the diminishing lure of vocational jobs. A survey conducted by 3M Canada found that 76 percent of young people do not want to pursue a career in a skilled trade. Other reports point to the same conclusion: Gen Z is simply not interested in being an automotive technician or a plumber.

We are largely to be blamed for the current situation. We, as a society, have long-favoured white-collar jobs over vocational ones — pushing kids to the more hallowed path of the four-year college degree. Many high schools do not even offer classes or certifications for skilled trades. Female students, who have made great inroads into white-collar professions, are rarely encouraged to become technicians.

Targeted immigration is a potential fix. Many Ontario dealers are actively working with their trade associations and government to bring in workers from overseas. Aftermarket shops could potentially benefit from these programs as well. Various provinces are also stepping up support for skilled trades — including automotive — in the form of both funding and training programs.

But these are mere band-aids. As older mechanics exit the workforce in larger numbers, it would be impossible to constantly replace them with foreign workers.

We are largely to be blamed for the current situation. We, as a society, have long-favoured white-collar jobs over vocational ones — pushing kids to the more hallowed path of the four-year college degree.

Rather, we need to change the conversation around technician jobs and foster recruitment from within. Tomorrow’s mechanics will require advanced technical knowledge to work in shops. We need to position these jobs as those of the shiny future, and not of the grimy past.

Students need to be made aware that modern automobiles are closer to computers than cars. Going forward, they would need functional knowledge of software, modern EV architecture, and artificial intelligence. Industry stakeholders — automakers, dealers, workshop chains — need to provide more “arsenal” in the form of simulators, advanced tools and marketing materials to vocational teachers and schools.

The demographic time bomb is ticking. Scientist Smil claims that once the birth rate falls below the replacement rate, it’s nearly impossible to turn it around. While broader policy will ultimately impact how we maintain the balance between retirees and young jobseekers, the auto repair industry will need to get creative in attracting talent. Can it make the mechanic “sexy” again? Maybe that’s another question for Elon Musk.