Based on research by Avrio Institute, SEMA’s market research suggests that “what will go down in the record books as one of the steepest and deepest economic declines in history will likely also be the shortest.”
The association acknowledges that some market conditions may continue to deteriorate, but it points to green shoots starting to appear in the incoming data from around the U.S. in May.
“While many data series remain down significantly from pre-pandemic levels, they have recovered somewhat from the lows seen in April,” the newsletter states.
It points out that automotive production, which was severely curtailed in April is starting to ramp back up.
New-vehicle sales are similarly recovering.
“Even in the face of historic unemployment, the biggest economic decline in history and historic declines in spending, consumer spending remains above the lows of the last recession,” according to SEMA. “While sentiment is down and uncertainty is elevated, consumers seem ready to return to normal economic activity once COVID-19 is sufficiently handled.
The newsletter, which can be found at HERE advises that the coming months will be important in more fully defining the timing and strength of the recovery.