How the BEV landscape will change

There’s going to be significant growth of battery electric vehicles by the end of the decade, an automotive leader predicted recently.

BEVs alone made up 10 per cent of new vehicle registrations in the third quarter of 2023. And those numbers are expected to grow fourfold by 2023.

“So a huge, significant ramp up,” said Brian Kingston, president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association at the Canadian Black Book Talk Auto 2023 event.

However, he cautioned, this is based on the assumption that mining capacity ramps up as anticipated.

“The caveat here is this is all on the basis of us having the capacity in the battery supply to feed those supply chains and that vehicle production, which is a big question mark at this stage,” he said while delivering his State of the Canadian Auto Industry presentation.

Nevertheless, automakers are putting trillions of dollars into battery electric technology, which will drive the increase.

A couple of years ago, Kingston pointed out, there were a handful of companies that had electrification targets with a goal to bring a few new models into the market. Looking ahead to 2030, virtually every company has a target.

“They’re all very aggressive. Some are related to the number of models they’re going to bring to market and others are related to sales targets. But we’ve had this extreme ramp-up over the past couple of years,” Kingston said.

He’s been on the job since 2020, “Over that three-year period, the speed and pace of commitments and the financial commitment that OEMs have paid to electrification has been nothing short of stunning,” Kingston said. “So this is happening and it’s happening very, very quickly.”

He highlighted Ford, General Motors and Stellantis as three companies committing $110 billion to BEVs technology through to the end of the decade.

“And so the objective right now is to get to about eight million units in vehicle production for EVs by the end of this decade,” Kingston said.

That will translate to about 50 models in the Canadian market from just those three companies by 2030. In 2012, there were just three models. Today there are 77. Another 40 are expected to come in 2024.

“So a very, very aggressive ramp up in the models that are available to Canadians,” Kingston said.

The biggest influx will be in the light truck segment — there will be electrified pickup trucks and SUVs, providing many more options to consumers.

“Virtually every vehicle will have an electrified option in the next few years,” Kingston said. “So that’s been a big driver of adoption as consumers see EVs that actually will fit their needs and their lifestyle.”