What’s helping the aftermarket despite consumer strain

Despite shaky consumer confidence and rising costs to keep vehicles on the road, the automotive aftermarket is on solid footing for the next year, according to an industry observer.

The sector continues to perform well even as many households rethink their spending, observed Nathan Shipley, executive director and industry analyst in Circana’s automotive aftermarket practice, at AAPEX 2025 in Las Vegas.

The broader economy is pressuring consumers through higher prices for essentials and major costs tied to owning a vehicle, from maintenance to insurance, he said during the Aftermarket Outlook 2026 session. Yet the basic conditions that support aftermarket demand remain favourable.

Shipley pointed to what he called the underlying health of the sector, supported by how much and how often people still drive, an aging vehicle fleet and long-term changes in work patterns.

“The fundamentals of the industry are pretty healthy,” he said.

Circana’s data show miles driven have recovered and surpassed historic levels, even as about half of corporate workers continue to spend at least part of the week at home instead of commuting.

Shipley said that when Circana looks at mobility metrics such as driving, transit use and air travel, it sees a strong picture for the kinds of wear and tear that drive aftermarket spending.

“When we look at mobility metrics, miles driven, it’s the highest,” he said about vehicle usage. “It’s very it’s a very healthy number.”

At the same time, consumers face what Shipley described as a sharp increase in the cost of owning a vehicle in the past five years, including higher prices for repairs, insurance and other services. That financial pressure is changing how different income groups maintain their vehicles and where they choose to spend.

Low-income households are more likely to delay work that can be put off, such as new tires or wiper blades, in order to manage monthly budgets. By contrast, higher income drivers are looking for savings in other ways, including doing more work themselves.

Shipley said there is a clear rise in do-it-yourself behaviour across several consumer categories, and the automotive aftermarket is no exception.

“So there’s a definite trend of shifting to DIY, and we’re observing it in the automotive aftermarket,” he said.

He linked part of that shift to the persistence of work from home. With more flexibility in their days, some consumers are taking on jobs like oil changes or basic maintenance instead of paying a shop to do the work.

Earlier expectations that DIY activity would fade as the pandemic receded have not played out as expected. Instead, Shipley said those habits have stuck for many drivers and are now being reinforced by price gaps between having work done and doing it at home.

He also noted the age of vehicles on the road continues to climb, which supports steady demand for replacement parts and maintenance. Many consumers put off buying new vehicles when supply was tight and prices were high, which in turn has kept older cars and trucks in service longer.

Looking ahead, signs point to modest growth in aftermarket unit volumes into 2026, even as consumers adjust to higher living costs and make tougher trade-offs in other parts of their budgets. Shipley said.

He added that while some shoppers are trading down within categories or stretching intervals between certain services, the need to keep vehicles running ensures the aftermarket remains a priority for many households.

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