How soon for autonomous? Study gives latest guess

Vehicles with at least one autonomous feature are expected to dominate the roads in the next few years.

Global Market Insights, Inc. recently forecasted that the autonomous vehicle market will cross shipments of over 60 million units by 2024. Level 1 autonomous cars are expected to account for over 90 per cent of the autonomous industry.

Driving growth will vehicle safety concerns that can be addressed by the basic level of autonomy – which means vehicles have a singular aspect of automation, whether it be steering, braking or speed control.

Vehicles at Level 4, for example, which require no human interaction, are expected to be commercially available by 2022, according to Global Market Insights.

“The automakers have increased their R&D spending to intensify their efforts for the development of self-driving cars. The companies are obtaining licenses from various local authorities to test their Level 4 self-driving technology,” it said.

Level 2 autonomous – which is able to control both steering and acceleration with the driver in complete control at all times – is expected to grow at a rate of 45 per cent into 2024.

“The advancements in the automotive technology such as the integration of artificial intelligence, GPS, and advanced electronic sensors such as radar, LiDAR, and ultrasonic sensors promote the market growth,” the group said.

As for internal combustion engines versus battery or hybrid electric vehicles, it too will start to shift.

“Rising concerns toward environmental safety and the increasing number of government regulations to reduce carbon emissions have restricted the growth of the ICE cars market,” Global Market Insights said.

Thanks to government policies, tax benefits and subsidies, the group pegs growth at 60 per cent over the next six years.

Europe is tops for market share when it comes to self-driving technology, sitting at 40 per cent in 2017.

“The auto manufacturers have invested significantly in the autonomous vehicle technology to accelerate the innovative processes in the self-driving vehicle landscape,” the report said. “The governments in the region are investing in improving the road and telecom infrastructure, enabling the self-driving vehicles to better interact with its surroundings.”

In The Netherlands, its government installed new traffic lights across the nation to help self-driving cars better interact with its surroundings.