Energy Vision has released an update to its 2025 report on replacing aging heavy‑duty diesel trucks with cleaner options, saying the recent spike in diesel prices has shifted cost calculations in favour of renewable natural gas (RNG). The NGO says diesel prices have risen 60 per cent since the Iran War, reaching $6.23 per gallon nationwide and $8.15 in California.
The report compares three alternatives to diesel: new diesel trucks running on renewable diesel, battery‑electric trucks and compressed natural gas trucks running on RNG made from organic waste. It says renewable diesel prices have climbed alongside fossil diesel, while RNG pricing has remained stable because it is tied to CNG. According to the report, RNG now costs at least $3.50 per gallon less than diesel in California and $2 less nationwide.
Energy Vision says RNG requires about $75,000 in upfront capital for a new CNG tractor‑trailer, but that cost can be recovered quickly. Payback periods range from 1.3 years when RNG is $3.50 cheaper per gallon than diesel to 2.8 years when the difference is $2. The report says battery‑electric trucks remain the most expensive option, with heavy‑duty EVs costing two to three times as much as comparable diesel models. Fewer than 3,000 heavy‑duty EVs were operating in the U.S. at the end of 2025, and adoption is increasing by fewer than 1,000 units a year.
“The economics of heavy‑duty trucking have changed,” said Michael Lerner, Energy Vision’s director of research and publications. He said switching to cleaner alternatives can help fleet owners avoid diesel‑price volatility and public‑health impacts, and the report found RNG to be the strongest option for replacing diesel trucks at scale.
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