How much growth is poised for the U.S. aftermarket  

The U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to continue its steady expansion through the end of the decade, supported by an aging vehicle fleet, rising repair complexity and sustained consumer reliance on personal transportation, according to a new joint forecast from the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers.

The 2026 Joint Channel Market Size and Forecast, prepared by S&P Global Market Intelligence, projects the light‑duty aftermarket will grow 5.2 per cent in 2026, driven by continued strength in non‑warranty parts, fluids and service labour.

Looking further ahead, the report forecasts the U.S. aftermarket will surpass $500 billion by 2029, extending the industry’s post‑pandemic growth trajectory and reinforcing its position as a stable and resilient sector within the broader automotive landscape.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model combines macroeconomic indicators, vehicle parc data and consumer behaviour trends to provide a comprehensive view of the aftermarket’s direction.

The report highlights several long‑term drivers expected to drive growth through the forecast period.

The aging vehicle fleet remains the most significant factor. As vehicles stay on the road longer, demand for maintenance and repair services continues to rise, increasing aftermarket spending across both parts and labour.

Vehicle complexity is also contributing to higher service value. The growing adoption of advanced driver assistance systems and other technologies is making repairs more specialized, often increasing both parts content and labour requirements.

Consumer behaviour continues to support the market as well. Despite economic uncertainty and geopolitical pressures — including ongoing global conflicts cited in the report — Americans remain heavily reliant on personal vehicles, maintaining consistent mileage levels that drive steady aftermarket demand.

“The U.S. automotive aftermarket remains fundamentally strong, supported by long‑term vehicle and consumer trends,” said Bill Hanvey, president and chief executive officer of the Auto Care Association.

He added that the forecast provides industry participants with critical insights to guide strategic planning in a changing environment.

Emily Poladian, president of MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, noted that the sector’s resilience continues to stand out despite broader economic challenges.

“Despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. automotive aftermarket continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, driven by consumers’ commitment to maintaining and repairing their vehicles,” she said.

While the outlook remains positive, the report noted ongoing external pressures that could affect performance, including geopolitical instability and broader economic headwinds. However, these factors are not expected to significantly derail overall growth, given the essential nature of vehicle maintenance and repair.

The full Joint Channel Forecast is included in the Auto Care Association’s 2027 Auto Care Factbook.