Electric vehicle (EV) sales are continuing to grow, but the once-rapid pace of adoption is beginning to slow as the market reaches a new stage of maturity.
Todd Campau, associate director of the aftermarket at S&P Global Mobility, addressed shifting trends in electric vehicle (EV) sales and the evolving dynamics of the green automotive market during a presentation at AAPEX 2024.
EVs crossed a significant milestone of one million new units sold in the U.S. last year and set new highs in the percentage of vehicles sold in Canada in 2024, including BEVs making up about 18 per cent of sales in December. The pace of growth is beginning to moderate south of the border and Canada saw a slowdown to start 2025 as incentives were removed or phased out. In a separate conversation with Auto Service World Conversations, Campau noted that sales numbers tend to go down when purchase rebates go away.
“There seems to be a little bit of a cooling around pure electric and more of a focus of: Can we find a middle ground where we are making progress in becoming a greener fleet, but also getting that customer acceptance that drives it?” Campau said at AAPEX in his presentation, Trends Impacting the Aftermarket.
However, this slowdown aligns with expectations, reflecting the natural life cycle of emerging technology.
In Canada, nearly 300,000 EVs were sold last year, with U.S. sales projected to reach between 1.1 and 1.3 million units. These numbers mark steady progress but also indicate a shift from the earlier “hockey stick” growth trajectory.
Trucks are now a key driver of EV adoption, with crossover utility vehicles and pickup truck EVs gaining popularity.
“I think one of the things that we’ve seen with EVs that is helping the EV marketplace — you’re seeing more of those trucks come into play now,” he explained. “There’s more crossover utility vehicles and more pickup truck EVs that are available.”
This mimics the general vehicle marketplace where passenger cars are being left behind in favour of bigger vehicles.
“Just like the general population of vehicles, trucks are driving EV registrations as well. And I expect that to continue to a similar pace as what we see with the general market,” Campau said.
However, he tempered expectations about EVs significantly altering the aftermarket in the near term.
“It’s going to take a long time” for EVs to have a major effect on the aftermarket, Campau explained.
With more than 300 million vehicles on North American roads, EV adoption will be a gradual process. Even at the current rate of eight to 10 per cent of annual new registrations being EVs, widespread impact will take years.
“It’s going to be slow and steady growth for the next several years. It won’t be doubling year on year,” Campau noted.
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