Why EV growth won’t dent ICE aftermarket any time soon

Electric vehicles may be gaining ground in new car sales, but their impact on the aftermarket will remain limited for years, according to a new report from Lang Marketing.

The study, ICE Vehicles Will Dominate the Aftermarket for Decades, says the vehicle population skews older than most markets, meaning internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will continue to drive aftermarket demand well into the 2030s.

DesRosiers Automtive Consultants reported recently that the zero-emission vehicle share of the 24.6 million light vehicles on the road in Canada sat at 2.8 per cent in 2024.

“An examination of EV sales and their impact reveals a different picture,” the Lang report noted, adding that EVs won’t be in any position to displace ICE vehicles in the aftermarket any time soon.

BEVs make a small dent
Battery electric vehicles accounted for less than 40 per cent of new EV sales between 2016 and 2024, representing only 3 per cent of total new light vehicle volume. On the road, BEVs climbed from about 0.1 per cent of the U.S. vehicle fleet in 2016 to just over 1 per cent by 2023. Even record sales in 2024 pushed their share to only 1.7 per cent.

When it comes to vehicles at least four years old — the segment that generates over 95 per cent of aftermarket product volume — BEVs made up less than 0.6 per cent in 2024. Lang estimates BEVs eliminated less than 1 per cent of ICE aftermarket volume last year.

Minimal impact by 2030
By 2030, BEVs are expected to cut less than 5 per cent of ICE aftermarket product volume, excluding tires and accessories. Meanwhile, ICE vehicles are projected to see strong aftermarket growth through the decade, far outpacing any losses from EV adoption.

While BEVs require some aftermarket products, such as tires, accessories, batteries and electrical components, Lang noted that their overall impact will remain small for years to come.

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