Flat sales outlook, steady demand: What’s shaping 2026 aftermarket sentiment

Uncertainty is the defining challenge facing the automotive aftermarket heading into 2026, even as most businesses expect steady demand driven by consumers keeping vehicles longer, according to the 2026 State of the Automotive Aftermarket Survey Report released by AAPEX.

The survey of 448 aftermarket professionals, including repair shops, suppliers, manufacturers and distributors, found expectations for 2026 sales largely flat compared with 2025. About three in 10 (31 per cent) respondents expect to beat sales goals this year, while 42 per cent anticipate meeting targets. About a quarter (27 per cent) believe sales will fall short.

Despite that cautious outlook, demand signals remain positive. Six in 10 respondents (61 per cent) expect demand for aftermarket parts and services to grow in 2026, a trend respondents tied to rising new vehicle prices and longer vehicle ownership cycles.

“The price of new cars is high, so people are purchasing, repairing and maintaining older vehicles,” one respondent wrote. Another noted, “People are keeping their cars for longer periods of time.”

Price sensitivity is also shaping buying behaviour. A majority of respondents, 53 per cent, said they are seeing increased interest in lower-cost parts and services. Still, quality remains the top purchasing driver, cited by 34 per cent, followed by price at 25 per cent and availability at 20 per cent, suggesting customers are seeking value rather than the lowest price.

Uncertainty emerged as the top challenge across the survey, identified by 45 per cent of respondents. That theme ran through responses on supply chains, inventories, electric vehicle strategy and labour.

Supply chain diversification is well underway. Seven in 10 respondents said they have completed diversifying suppliers, are planning to do so, or have initiatives in progress. Inventory levels are rising, with 38 per cent managing higher parts inventories compared with 20 per cent reporting fewer parts on hand.

Electric vehicle investment plans remain unsettled. More respondents said they will invest less in EVs (26 per cent) than those planning to invest more, at 17 per cent. Another 27 per cent expect to invest about the same as last year, while the largest single group said they are unsure about their EV investment strategy (29 per cent).

Artificial intelligence adoption is moving ahead cautiously. One in five (21 per cent) respondents said they have implemented enterprise‑grade AI tools, with another 20 per cent in the planning stages. Among those using AI, the most common applications are customer service (60 per cent), inventory management (42 per cent) and product development (36 per cent).

The skilled labour shortage ranked as the second biggest challenge. To attract workers, respondents cited offering more training (30 per cent), boosting compensation (27 per cent) and improving benefits (22 per cent). However, one quarter said they are not taking any of those steps. In open‑ended comments, some described relying on retired workers or temporary help, while one respondent said they “just stopped looking for help.”

The survey noted that labour pressures extend beyond repair shops. Manufacturing respondents, the second‑largest group in the survey, also highlighted workforce challenges.

One called for “a national apprenticeship program that is deeply integrated into the manufacturing sector,” adding that technical schools should align curricula with “the real‑time needs of the factory floor.”

AAPEX said the findings reinforce the aftermarket’s reputation for stability, even in uncertain conditions. While most respondents expect 2026 sales to track closely with last year, the combination of an aging vehicle fleet and sustained repair demand continues to underpin the market. If uncertainty can be reduced, “the aftermarket will find a way to win,” the report said.

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