Global EV adoption surges, but regional pace varies

The global transition to electric vehicles is accelerating, but the speed it’s happening looks very different depending on where you are.

According to the latest EY Mobility Lens Forecaster, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to make up more than half of light vehicle sales across China, Europe and the United States by 2034. Hybrid and plug-in hybrid models will remain a major part of the mix through 2036, holding a share of more than 30 per cent as a bridge to full electrification.

“The EV transition is advancing, but unevenly,” said Constantin M. Gall, EY’s global aerospace, defence and mobility leader. “The U.S. faces policy uncertainty, high costs, and infrastructure gaps. Europe is on a steady recovery path under strict emissions targets. China benefits from stable policy and a robust EV ecosystem.”

China is projected to hit 50 per cent BEV penetration by 2033, driven by lower costs and strong government support, including new emission standards. New energy vehicles, BEVs and plug-in hybrids, are expected to reach 50 per cent of sales by 2025 and soar past 90 per cent by 2034. While China’s share of global BEV sales will dip from 70 per cent today to 54 per cent by 2050, it will remain the dominant player.

In the U.S., BEV adoption is now forecast to hit 50 per cent by 2039 — five years later than earlier projections. A short-term spike is expected in 2025 as buyers rush to claim tax credits before they expire, but growth could slow as incentives end and tariffs rise. Hybrids will remain popular, peaking at 34 per cent of sales by 2034, EY predicted.

Europe’s BEV growth will lag in the near term due to reduced incentives and softer emissions penalties, according to EY. But stricter CO2 limits and more affordable models are expected to drive a rebound. BEVs are projected to surpass 50 per cent of sales by 2032, with hybrids outselling BEVs until 2030.

“The near- to mid-term future will feature a diverse mix of powertrains,” Gall said. “What’s clear is that e-mobility will remain central to the future of transportation.”

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