From the Magazine: Uncertainty is the new normal

Finding opportunity as economic struggles show no signs of slowing down

This has been a year of shifting narratives. From geopolitical distractions to renewed trade war rhetoric and a teetering global economy, themes have ebbed and flowed.

But one constant has been the growing caution among Canadian households.

Mortgage renewals at higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and now the looming threat of increased tariffs on non-USMCA imports (possibly reaching as high as 35 per cent) have created an atmosphere of restraint for consumers and businesses alike.

Steel and aluminum tariffs, in particular, threaten to once again drive up the cost of new vehicles — compounding already inflated prices and delaying fleet renewals. For shops and aftermarket distributors, this likely means continued strength in vehicle retention trends and a steady cadence of maintenance, repair and vehicle upkeep services being prioritized over vehicle replacement.

This trend, while not new, is deepening. Consumers are adapting by driving older vehicles longer, keeping maintenance top of mind. For repair shops and mechanical service providers, this translates to stable, if not increased, demand — especially for those positioned to service vehicles out of warranty or past their prime.

For repair shops and mechanical service providers, this translates to stable, if not increased, demand — especially for those positioned to service vehicles out of warranty or past their prime.

A year of mixed signals

The Canadian aftermarket has faced a volatile, but resilient, 2025. Various regional factors, a shifting political agenda and global disruptions have made it a challenging year to forecast.

The early part of the year was marked by optimism around rate cuts, followed by disappointment as inflation remained stubbornly above central bank targets. Meanwhile, the geopolitical shift back to trade protectionism has brought supply chain risks back into focus for distributors and buying groups.

Despite this, many shop owners and service providers have navigated these changes with agility. Larger networks have turned their attention inward, doubling down on operational efficiency, technician retention and client experience to buffer against rising costs and slower traffic in some segments. Meanwhile, distributors have increasingly focused on diversifying supply chains and leaning on domestic or USMCA-compliant sources to avoid getting caught in the crosshairs of looming tariffs.

Still, the sentiment on the ground is one of cautious neutrality. Executives across the aftermarket are acknowledging that, while 2025 hasn’t been without opportunity, it hasn’t been the growth year many had hoped for either. The shift in consumer behaviour — from aggressive DIY and performance modifications in 2020–2022 to more necessity-driven maintenance work in recent years — has left shops recalibrating their approach.

While 2025 hasn’t been without opportunity, it hasn’t been the growth year many had hoped for either.

Structural shifts

Beneath the day-to-day dynamics, a longer-term trend continues to shape the aftermarket — one centred around consolidation, capital investment, and emerging technology.

While overall M&A activity in 2025 has remained neutral, there is still strategic movement in the market. Private equity firms and multi-store operators across the collision, glass, mechanical and distribution spaces are actively scanning the landscape for opportunities. With an aging demographic of business owners and a fragmented competitive environment, value creation remains possible — especially when combined with modern operational playbooks, digital infrastructure, and scale advantages.

We are also seeing a surge in shop-level investments in emerging revenue streams, such as ADAS calibration, advanced diagnostics, and glass services — areas of the aftermarket that are growing due to the increasing complexity of the modern vehicle. These are not just defensive moves; they’re calculated plays to grow market share in areas aligned with long-term trends.

And as AI and shop management technology continue to improve — from customer quoting to predictive maintenance recommendations — those willing to modernize and evolve stand to benefit from greater margins, better customer experiences, and improved operational insight.

Beneath the day-to-day dynamics, a longer-term trend continues to shape the aftermarket — one centred around consolidation, capital investment, and emerging technology.

Opportunity of steady ground

In a world where volatility is the norm, the automotive aftermarket remains anchored by long-term structural trends. Vehicles will continue to age. Consumers will continue to prioritize essential maintenance. And shop owners who focus on trust, transparency, and efficiency will continue to grow — even if cautiously.

While we may not be in boom times, the conditions are in place for sustainable success — if the aftermarket leans in, rather than waits it out.

Zakari Krieger is the Fix Network, Canadian vice president of Prime CarCare, responsible for the Canadian retail business, encompassing the Speedy Auto Service and Novus Auto Glass business lines

This article originally appeared in the August 2025 issue of CARS magazine