Auto Service World
News   January 31, 2023   by Adam Malik

How many EVs to expect in 10 years, and why

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An industry analyst projected that battery electric vehicles will have a 10 per cent market share by 2025 and grow to 57 per cent 10 years from now.

And there’s no reason why that shouldn’t happen, according to Daniel Ross, senior automotive analyst at Canadian Black Book.

“Every OEM out there has either got plans or has EVs out there and is developing more to make it before that mandated 2035 timeframe,” he added.

He’s referring to the federal government mandate of all passenger vehicles sold in Canada being a zero-emission vehicle by the middle of the next decade.

Will consumers buy in? Yes, Ross believes so. The main reason is that vehicle range is at a level where most people feel comfortable, at about 400 km.

“The level of range across the board is pretty high,” he said. “We’re around 400-500 kilometres on most vehicles out there — 400 is the real breaking point in terms of when consideration can be had for a lot of users out there of EVs.”

People will throw out situations of wanting to make long road trips but how often do people make these trips? Nevertheless, range is expected to grow where such concerns are lessened.

“We’re at a point now where most consumers can get behind this range and see that it sustains your day-to-day life,” Ross said. “Apparently, everyone wants to go from Vancouver to Halifax all the time.

“But ultimately, [range] is still going to grow. There’s going to be cars that go above that.”

There will also be advances in battery technology that will help. But there are challenges at the moment.

While there is room for lithium-ion to grow, Ross observed, they’re a hot commodity. “The lithium fields are sort of anticipated to be in a shortage status around 2025. What’s happening is the usage of lithium for production of EVs is outpacing us finding it. And so that’s really going to become an issue.”

But there are new technologies in development. He highlighted sila nanotechnologies that are coming to the market. These are expected to balance out the anticipated deficiencies in lithium.

“So what they’re doing is increasing energy density per battery and that’s reducing our reliance on lithium per vehicle, which is going to elongate that supply, and let us get into that next generation of EVs,” Ross said. “Perhaps it might be solid state technologies or something upon us that we haven’t even heard of yet.”

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3 Comments » for How many EVs to expect in 10 years, and why
  1. E says:

    This is an absolutely ridiculous sentence to include in this article: “People will throw out situations of wanting to make long road trips but how often do people make these trips?” Just trivializing the desire people have to make road trips is not going to win people over to EV technology. If the consumer wants to road trip, the market needs to provide a solution – not just respond with “oh, you don’t really make trips that often.”

  2. Doug says:

    With the government mandating these changes is there going to be some sort of subsidy or buy out for shop owners? When tobacco was deemed “bad” by the government, the farmers in my area received a buy out. It would only seem fair in this case to offer something since it is the government that has deemed the ICE as “bad”.
    Something to think about.

  3. Rob Nurse says:

    Our governments and manufactures have done a tremendous job marking this commodity as a green vehicle. The truth is it is not only far from green but also it is not affordable for the average consumer. While the EV technology has a place in our society, it is not for the average consumer. Our government and manufactures are dependent on the average consumer to purchase this commodity for our economic stability. With more and more negative information coming out about this EV technology, the majority of my customers do not support this trend. If the average consumer holds on to their vehicles longer than normal or gives up this commodity all together because they can not afford an EV, our government and manufactures are going to be in a whole world of hurt.

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