DesRosiers predicts new car sales trends for 2014

Provincial sales in 2013 provide a number of insights into what might happen to the market this year, according to the most recent market snapshot by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants. Last year Ontario and Quebec, Canada’s largest regional markets, were both somewhat tepid in helping the overall Canadian market, which hit a new all-time high in 2013 of 1,743,211 units. Ontario performed at market and Quebec was well below market. However, Ontario started to show a pulse the last half of the year and the strength we are starting to see in Ontario is one of the reasons we are forecasting a continuation of record vehicle sales in 2014.

DesRosiers says Quebec will be important if Canada is to reach the national potential and thus new records. Quebec has been quite soft from a vehicle sales perspective for quite some time and indeed there wasn’t much changes in this status the last half of 2013. However, Quebec is also highly reliant on the US economy and Ontario for its exports and as these economies improve, so should Quebec.

Manitoba led the sales barrage last year with a 9.7 percent increase in a national market that increased 4.0 percent. Quebec was the only negative market in 2013 with sales down by 0.2 percent in 2013. All other provincial markets were at or above the increase in sales at a national level with the exception of New Brunswick, which only increased 3.9 percent year-over-year.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, PEI and Newfoundland all set new annual sales records. Quebec, Ontario and BC are still well below previous peak annual sales and thus will be the primary question for sales growth in 2014.

Even though sales declined slightly, the Honda Civic remained Canada’s best-selling passenger car for a remarkable 16th year. However, DesRosiers says what is truly amazing is that the Ford F-Series pickup truck outsells the Civic at almost two to one. Indeed, the Ram pickup also outsells the Civic.

Entry-level vehicles hit a new record level of 825,469 units breaking the 800K level for the first time. Large pickup trucks also hit record highs selling 299,226 vehicles.  DesRosiers says one of the top items on their watch list is the large pickup truck segment since it may have reached its peak and could fall back a little in 2014. New product in this segment, the interaction of the segment with small pickups, and changing economic dynamics are just some of the reasons that make this a segment to watch. However “C” sized compact cars and light trucks appear to have nowhere to go but up, and could hit 850K units in 2014.